Tag Archives: business

Hunch: Nintendo Revives “Super” Branding

Moments ago, WSJ broke news that Nintendo will be announcing a new Switch in 2019. This continues a trend of WSJ breaking Nintendo news.

Earlier this evening, after seeing reviews for Super Mario Party emerge, it dawned on me the appropriateness of the “super” brand in an era of mid-cycle console refreshes. The Super Nintendo Entertainment System was a next-gen console at the time, but “Super” now feels like a supreme version of an existing console.

My crack-pot hunch is that this new Switch will be named the “Super Switch” (as opposed to “Switch XL”) and will feature a larger display (smaller bezel), richer speakers, better kickstand placement, and Bluetooth headphone support at a minimum. Just a hunch.

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There are too many video games. What now?

Excerpts from Steven Wright’s Polygon Cover Story, emphasis my own:

Everyone can make games, but be realistic. … It used to be that you could do something that nobody had ever seen before, or you could do something familiar really well. Now, it has to be innovative and have incredible quality.”

Games are surely easier to make than ever before. Easy for me to say as I’ve never made a game, but I have to believe that today’s technology has decreased the barrier of entry to development. That’s not to say it’s easy to create a good game. Like any good art or media, that is an incredibly difficult feat.

The tech to create games is more accessible than ever. Formal eduction to learn how to make games has become readily available. The distribution of games becomes increasingly easy via tools like Epic’s Unreal Engine which allows developers to “more easily ship games and seamlessly optimize gameplay across platforms.”

For those developers creating online experiences, the choice and complexity of platform to develop for and release to shrinks ever more with cross-platform play becoming increasingly popular.

It begs the question there is inevitably one experience everywhere, how do the plethora of games become seen? I believe indies will come to depend on large publishers for marketing budgets to cut through the cruft. But those publishers will be increasingly looking for guarantees on their investments. Not a chance on a new indie title.

When Finnish studio Housemarque released a twin-stick shooter called Nex Machina into the wilds of Steam in 2017, it didn’t exactly expect the game to to set tills alight. Even with those lowered expectations, however, the team behind the acclaimed defend-’em-up Resogun found itself shocked at the lack of impact that the Housemarque name seemed to have on the droves of consumers scrolling through Steam every day. When the sales numbers finally trickled t in — Housemarque declined to discuss specifics for this story, but SteamSpy and this recently patched achievement leak puts the number slightly below 100,000 copies sold as of summer 2018 — the mood was somber, with the studio’s head of publishing, Mikael Haveri, describing it as “devastating.”

The past few games I’ve played (and enjoyed!) on iOS have been published by Annapurna Interactive. The brand has made its impression. I couldn’t tell you the developer of any of these games.

The frequency at which a publisher for multiple developers can get its brand in front of the player is far greater than any indie developer. Recognition by saturation.

If the publisher is able to consistently publish top-notch experiences, they also become a trusted curator of which players will seek new titles.

If a developer seeks to have the same level of recognition, they are absolutely required to create something “innovative and of incredible quality” to compel a player to invest in their complete experience, thus building a relationship. The longer the experience lasts, the deeper the relationship becomes.

Blizzard and Epic have created addictive experiences that continue pull players back in over and over, again and again, for hours on end; drilling their brand in with each launch of the game as well as their proprietary launchers and stores.

Nintendo iterates on familiar and successful franchises to deepen the association of a particular IP to Nintendo, thus deepening the player’s relationship with and trust in Nintendo. Should a new Nintendo IP comes along, chances are those with a relationship with Nintendo will give it a try. And because Nintendo consistently creates stellar experience, the trust will likely grow.

Capybara Games released an innovative title of incredible quality for iOS in Superbrothers: Sword & Sworcery days after the iPad 2 was released — arguably the first experience of its kind. The title was of novel design, mysterious, tonally unique, integrated social sharing to encourage peer-to-peer marketing, and was immersive and long enough to draw players back in through to completion during the early days of a platform. While Capybara may not be a household name, their design and tone is now familiar.

All of this said, the chances of a developer becoming a household name are far slimmer than a publisher who’s essentially become a curator. The same could be send for indie record labels and film distribution/production houses.

Devolver’s Nigel Lowry says that although many industry veterans and gamers alike think of the gaming market as a finite amount of money that hungry consumers are willing to spend in a given time period — say, this bloody holiday season, which is particularly awash with high-profile franchises that must duke it out, such as Assassin’s Creed and Red Dead Redemption — in the past few years, it’s become apparent that the limiting factor isn’t measured in dollars, but hours. In a climate where every game is stuffed to the gills with five tiers of colored loot, massive open worlds, reams of optional content and a dozen content patches lurking on the schedule before the core package even hits store shelves, it seems that game developers are battering each other harder than ever before to compete for the attention of games worldwide.

“Even if the most hardcore gamer plays 14 hours a day, that’s still a finite amount of time,” he says. “And if you’re spending 10 of those in a PUBG, or a Fortnite, what does that leave for the rest of us? It’s true that timing of release is critical, sure, and I don’t think that single-player, smaller-scope games are going to go away; there’s always going to be room for that. But time is something that you really can’t move, and you have to account for that when people move into these long-term relationships with games.

See Self-competing and Time Blocking.

I truly don’t know what the future of indies is, but it doesn’t look great.

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Cross-platform play coming to PS4, starting with Fortnite

Ben Kuchera, Polygon:

Sony has finally stopped fighting the future: A beta for cross-platform play, including support for Fortnite, launches today.

“The first step will be an open beta beginning today for Fortnite that will allow for cross platform gameplay, progression and commerce across PlayStation 4, Android, iOS, Nintendo Switch, Xbox One, Microsoft Windows, and Mac operating systems,” PlayStation president and global CEO John Kodera wrote on the PlayStation Blog. “We see the beta as an opportunity to conduct thorough testing that ensures cross-platform play is best on PlayStation, while being mindful about the user experience from both a technical and social perspective.”

This is a major reversal of its longstanding policy of keeping PlayStation fans segregated from the rest of the industry, after arguing that cross-platform play might even be unsafe. Others in the industry had argued that the policy was due to monetary concerns. Many publishers, including Bethesda, had been pressuring Sony to make this change, and developers such as Psyonix have already spoken openly about how easy the change would be to implement from their end.

This is industry shaking news. With this breakthrough, cross-platform play will become a new norm.

Not to belabor the “console wars”, but I suspect this will encourage deeper investment in first-party exclusives (Nintendo’s game) leading to more studio acquisitions (Microsoft’s new game), as well as bigger deals for third-party exclusives (Sony’s game, traditionally).

Finally. Finally. Finally. Finally.

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The Nintendo 3DS and the Importance of Ports

Viewers of Nintendo’s 9.13.2018 Direct were witness to a treasure trove of future Switch titles. To name a few:

  • Animal Crossing
  • Luigi’s Mansion 3
  • Mega Man 11
  • Final Fantasy VII, IX, X, X-2, XII ports
  • Yoshi’s Crafted World
  • New Super Mario Bros. U port
  • Diablo III
  • Civilization VI

But the one announcement I keep coming back to is the 3DS port of Kirby’s Epic Yarn — a 2010 Wii title — in the form of Kirby’s Extra Epic Yarn.

This is not the first Nintendo home console port to the 7-year-old portable console — Donkey Kong Country Returns (Wii), Xenoblade Chronicles (Wii), most recently Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker (Wii U), to name a few — but it was the first during this Nintendo Direct. Shortly after, a port of the GameCube launch title Luigi’s Mansion (2001) was announced as a marketing tactic fix to hold fans over for Luigi’s Mansion 3 on the Switch.

In 2017, Nintendo stated that they would continue to support the 3DS/2DS past 2018, alongside the Switch. Current sales numbers of the Switch reflect that of the hugely popular PS4. But even with that success, it’s fascinating to see Nintendo port back-catalog console titles to it’s aged handheld. The telling reason is the 3DS’s continued sales numbers, continuing to post 6.4 million units sold during Nintendo’s fiscal year 2018 ending March 31, 2018 alone.


It’s one thing that Wii U titles are seeing new life on the Switch — Mario Kart 8, Hyrule Warriors, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker — but it’s even more interesting the see the same tactic for a device that third-party support has all but dried up.

Nintendo sees continued life in the 3DS — a 2017 version in the New Nintendo 2DS XL is probably one clue — and seems to have found a method to maintaining the growth of an already stellar catalog with it’s own IP.

Short of the minority who still own a Gamecube or Wii, there is no other place to play Nintendo titles like Kirby’s Epic Yarn, Luigi’s Mansion, Donkey Kong Country Returns, or Xenoblade Chronicles — all of which have or will have a Switch sequel. If you don’t have a 3DS/2DS, these games may be attractive enough to pick one up on the opportunity to play or replay alone. But even for existing owners of the 3DS/2DS, this stable of first-party ports are certain to whet appetites for their Switch sequels.

The 3DS is a brilliant promotional tool for the Nintendo Switch.

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Xbox All Access Pass hardware, software, and services subscription

Ben Thompson, Stratechery Daily Update:

That noted, it is not too difficult to imagine this program morphing into something much more significant in the ninth-generation, which is due in 2020. I’ve already discussed the anticipated shift to streaming, at least for some titles; that, naturally, fits a subscription model perfectly.

What is particularly compelling, though, is idea of assuming regular hardware upgrades throughout the generation. Microsoft could, of course, simply charge its best gamers for those slight upgrades every time they come out, but what if instead of financing new consoles the model was more akin to leasing? Pay one monthly fee, get access to online services, streaming games, and new hardware every few years?

Consumer hardware as a service.

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Some Numbers That Illustrate Nintendo Switch’s Massive Success

Jason Schreier reporting for Kotaku:

Nintendo today reported its earnings for the 2017 fiscal year, which means a whole bunch of interesting new sales numbers to look at. They’re all impressive, and they all show the massive appeal of Nintendo Switch.

Here are a few numbers that, taken together, make for some good perspective on just how successful Nintendo’s latest console has been throughout its first year on the market.

Wild numbers to the Switch’s set-top predecessor, the Wii U.

The Switch is more or less tracking the same sales pace as PS4. It took a little over one year for the PS4 to reach 18.5 worldwide hardware sell-through units — November 22, 2013 – January 4, 2015.

Microsoft has been mum on sales figures, but in 2016 slipped that the Xbox One had sold “around 18 to 19 million” units, two years after launch.


Update: Here’s a sales trajectory visual. Data source: Wikipedia.

Update 7/30/18: Nintendo announces 19.67 million Switch unit sales since launch. Updated sales chart below.

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The Verge: ‘My Xbox One S is now a meaningfully different console to my PS4’

Sam Byford, The Verge:

It’s also something that Sony simply isn’t able to offer, given the complexity of the PlayStation 3 hardware and consequent difficulty of emulating its software. And to be clear, Sony doesn’t really need to do it — the PS4 library is more than strong enough to make the console worth buying. If I only owned an Xbox and had the choice of being able to play the likes of Nier Automata, Uncharted, and Horizon Zero Dawn instead of a bunch of games from the last decade, I’d take it. It’s the paucity of Xbox One-exclusive content that is forcing Microsoft to find other ways to get people to use the platform.

That’s actually fine with me. I like that my Xbox One S is now a meaningfully different console to my PS4 Pro, with different use cases and functionality. It’s the box I go to for 4K Blu-rays, Forza Horizon 3 in HDR, or Ninja Gaiden Black with a usable controller. It’s the box I switch on to browse through when I’m not sure what I feel like doing, or when I’d rather play Cuphead on the couch than at my desk.

As I said, I think Microsoft has turned a story-telling corner.

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More Original Xbox Games Coming to Xbox One Backward Compatibility

Xbox Wire: The official Xbox blog:

Starting today, fans can play Sonic Generations for the first time on the Xbox One family of devices alongside other Xbox 360 favorites that will receive Xbox One X Enhanced updates such as Darksiders, Gears of War 2, Portal 2, Red Dead Redemption, and Star Wars: The Force Unleashed.

Later this month, we’ll release two batches of Original Xbox games – the first on April 17 and the second on April 26. All of these Original Xbox games will take advantage of the power of Xbox One with up to 4X the pixel count on Xbox One and Xbox One S, and up to 16X the pixel count on Xbox One X. See below for the full list of titles that will be available later this month, and don’t forget to visit https://majornelson.com/blog/xbox-one-backward-compatibility/ for the full list of backward compatible titles available on Xbox One.

This is an impressive list of titles.

Microsoft’s continued focus on backward compatibility is a smart move. It certainly won’t be enough to sell the tens of millions of units necessary to catch up to PlayStation 4’s sales figures, but in conjunction with increasing cross-network compatibility and the impressive power in the Xbox One X (vs. the PS4 Pro), I think Microsoft has turned a story-telling corner.

That said, for the same reasons I think backwards compatibility is a winning strategy for Xbox One, I think the Nintendo Switch will hold the lead on the conversation for a long while. After only 1 year on store shelves, the Switch’s sales trajectory (14 million units) will likely surpass Xbox One’s total 25-30 million units in 2018. PlayStation 4 has a much greater lead at 76.5 million units sold over 4.5 years. However, 14 million units in one year is without Nintendo breaking the seal on their back-catalog. And unless Microsoft or Sony glom on to exclusive licenses for third-party back-catalog — they won’t — there’s no telling who else may hop aboard the Switch train. (Come on, Final Fantasy X and Kingdom Hearts!)

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Nintendo Switch breaks records for first-year US sales

GamesIndustry.biz:

According to data from the NPD Group, the device has now achieved more year-one sales than any other console in history. While no figure was specified, it’s likely to be well over five million, as Nintendo reported 4.8 million sales in the US by the end of 2017.

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