Tipping Point

Andrew House, Sony Computer Entertainment president, as quoted by IGN:

Then the third one is virtual reality. There’s just a sense that we have that the technology is again reaching that tipping point, it’s on the cusp of being something that really delivers you true presence, of feeling like you’re in another world. When that’s delivered it’s really magical and I think that how far, how large, how quickly that’s going to become a major part of what we do remains to be seen, but we definitely think the magic of that experience leads you wanting to pursue it.

Admittedly, I have not tried Oculus Rift or Project Morpheus. Call me a naysayer but I just don’t see something as isolating as VR taking off. I don’t think the audience will be as small as to call it niche, but I think the mainstream will find that strapping goggles to one’s face in a group setting is a bit sickening. We are already seeing a slight backlash to smartphone usage in group settings.

This statement comes on the heels of a Samsung’s ‘Gear VR’ headset leak. Three major companies are now investing in VR without a crystal clear vision of the future of this tech. At least not a vision we’ve been shown. Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think abundant ’80s dreams of wearables and VR are an indication of “where the puck is headed.” At least not in any capacity advertised thus far.

Update: I should point out that I speak solely from the perspective of gaming; though, I have been reminded that PC gaming is primarily enjoyed in solitary environments. This is likely to be the heaviest hitting market for gaming VR. To add, the implications on accessibly experience (be it gaming, simulation, or otherwise) and real world simulations seem promising. Take a look at Chris Kluwe’s TED Talk on augmented reality and empathy.

Gambling for Kids

Mark Sorrell, Children’s Media Yearbook as excerpted by The Guardian:

Well there are a few issues here. Freemium apps aimed exclusively at kids are actually pretty rare and, thanks to a number of high profile missteps, certainly not getting any more popular.

A look at the top kids’ apps charts reveals that, rather uniquely, the top grossing apps are paid and not free. That’s definitely not true of the adult-orientated categories. The hubbub of the past two years has worked, and the kids market has largely got its house in order.

The problem comes when kids play games that are aimed at adults, but that children also adore. We’ve already established that kids love games and can deal with game mechanics that are at a far greater level of complexity than they exhibit in other areas of their development.

Later…

But there is a gradual understanding that within freemium, it’s not the more mercenary and mendacious techniques that are the most successful. A well designed freemium game uses money as a way to increase player agency and allow an extra form of expression rather than as a gating mechanic or devious trick. Spending money in many of the more successful freemium games is a symbol of the player’s enjoyment, not capitulation.

And when it comes to children interacting with these games, well, it’s not like we haven’t historically been teaching kids to say, gamble, anyway.

Panini Sticker books, those are definitely gambling for kids, and they sell six billion stickers a year. Those little LEGO Minifigure packs with a random minifig are gambling for kids. LEGO are the world’s biggest toy company

A closed packet containing a random prize has been an acceptable way to stop a child from making terrible, horrible noises in a public place for decades.

LEGO did not become the world’s biggest toy company by selling blind packs of random minifigs to crying children. LEGO neared bankruptcy prior to obtaining a license for the Star Wars franchise. The success of that license spun into numerous other licenses for Harry Potter, Marvel and DC, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, etc. LEGO also spun these franchises into lovable video games (free of in-app purchase), movies, and many other merchandising endeavors. They are not a company who has rooted their business practice in micro transactions for digital commodities or goods.

Andrew Sielen on his Reality Prose blog:

In 2004 the LEGO group was in trouble. They were losing money and losing market share to other toys and entertainment products.  In order to address some fundamental issues in their business, they needed to cut costs. Leading up to this crisis, LEGO bricks had been adding new designs and colors without consideration for the cost to the business. LEGO went through a large reorganization and cut the production of unique elements in half, the variety of colors in half, and the number of suppliers by 80%. This, in addition to an increase in licensed sets and an expansion into video games, saved the LEGO Company.

Sure, the “blind pack” is a form of immediate gambling and a successful side business but it also encourages diplomacy in trading. It’s the same practice that never stopped trading card or vinyl figure collectors from growing their collections and offering up the pastime of a scavenger hunt for the whole set. If a “whale” happened to have a massive amount of extraneous coin, they could easily buy the lot of a “blind” collectible box with probable certainty that they would complete a series. Or they could walk into any trading card shop and shell out for that rare Kobe Bryant rookie card without hesitation.

What happened to building a franchise and the “long game?” Video game sequels, be it Super Mario Bros. or Sonic The Hedgehog, are just iterations of the same game. Trickle in a new characters, mechanics, and levels and you’ve got yourself a sequel. Those that fell in love with the characters and gameplay from the first iteration are likely to scramble for the next.

Take a look at the Pokémon franchise. The first iteration of the game (red and blue) offered the first 151 Pokémon. However, each version only included 140 of said 151, 11 of which were exclusive to each version of the game. A single player could purchase both versions of the game along with two Game Boys, link them up and trade amongst themselves. However, the likelihood that a parent would allow for such an investment for 11 extra Pokémon was highly unlikely. Instead, children were encouraged to trade amongst their friends with the different version of the game.

This crazed investment of time, energy and community built a sustainable franchise… from collectibles. Just as with trading cards or any other expanding collectible sensation, offering more collectibles was an opportunity for more revenue; therefore, more and more Pokémon were created. This has continued for 16 years over several handheld console generations and spawned TV shows, movies, and various other merchandizing opportunities.

Carnival games still exist even though we know they are rigged, but we keep coming back for the chance of triumph. Even monetary gambling offers a chance at monetary and physical return. Sorrell’s cover of an IAP’s ability to “increase player agency and allow an extra form of expression” acknowledges the industry’s nearly unanimous “thumbs-up” of aesthetic IAP. Though, I’m not sure I see how buying a new dress for Barbie and “gambling” are linked.

The success of in-app purchases comes from whales. Children are not whales. Sorrell inadvertently touches on this with mention of games for adults vs. games for children. The problem is that these games are marketed and available without restriction to all age groups. It seems to me that if an IAP dev can wrangle a few bucks out of a unsuspecting child and ignorant parents, that child may come to believe that the nature of games is to pay for progress, thus a spiral.

The first time I played a console game and realized I did not have to feed the machine another quarter, I was sold. Once I owned the console, I could enjoy limitless play albeit at the hefty cost of a console and finished games. I learned to save and research for fulfilling experiences and communal discussions. Turns out, that trade-off was something millions were willing to make. The arcade vs. console era taught me more about money management than begging my parents for another roll of tokens.

Update: Howard Phillips, as quoted in “Console Wars” by Blake J. Harris:

Play itself is very rewarding for children. Maybe in some respects there’s a little too much play, but play is still important. And there’s this whole social opportunity, this currency of interaction, with friends, family, and even strangers. That kind of attitude extends beyond the playground, so I was really happy to be expressing that aspect of games.

If not Disneyland or Nintendo...

Jordan Shapiro, Forbes:

Disney characters are not as familiar to my kids as they were to me when I was their age. Perhaps it is because they have tablets, gaming consoles, and laptops. Their pop culture universe is dominated by Minecraft, Mario, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon. YouTube gamers are celebrities to them. While they (and I) enjoy those new Mickey Mouse shorts on the Disney Channel, we rarely set out to watch something because of the Disney brand.

I love Disneyland. Probably more than most. So much so that my NaNoWriMo novel took place within the gates if the Magic Kingdom. I have long dreamt of becoming a Walt Disney Imagineer; brainstorming, collaborating, and bringing to life grand new experiences for park guests. The idea of immersing myself in work that turned imagination into reality (even if it meant laying the brick myself!) always sounded… right.

However, I had an eerily similar thought last night. After setting down my copy of Console Wars by Blake J. Harris, I asked myself if I’d rather work for Disney or Nintendo?

Nintendo is full of characters I grew up, full of characters I love. Being born in 1985, the year the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) was brought to North America, Mario, Mega Man (Capcom aside), and Link (rather, the name I chose) were the characters that ushered me into the world, and I them. These characters had no personality, just a mission and they need me to achieve it. They required immersion and connection.

Being raised in a world where the participatory nature of video games was quickly becoming the norm, I’m not sure how much observing a character or watching the moral to a story unfold actually affected me. I was obsessed the Aladdin’s Genie because he made me laugh, but until I really understood the nuances of storytelling and scope of reality (probably somewhere in mid-high school), I’m not sure I really identified with any Disney character. I just knew I wanted to be the good guy.

After spending the weekend enjoying Mario Kart 8 with my fiancée, I thought about how much joy the characters of the Mushroom Kingdom brought me; I thought about how excited I was for Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker, or how I would jump at the opportunity to buy the next Luigi’s Mansion installment, or how I wish Nintendo would launch a Princess Peach and Daisy centric title.

Don’t get me wrong, working as a Walt Disney Imagineer or in Nintendo’s Treehouse sounds like more than any fan could ever ask for. But given an equal opportunity at both, I’m not sure which I would choose. I don’t think I’m the only one from my generation who sits on this fence.

In a connected society full of massive, customizable, open worlds and bite-sized mobile games, will post-millennials fantasize about either? If we live in a perpetually fantastic world, does reality become the new fantasy?

Mario Kart 8 lifts console sales more than Titanfall or Second Son

Tim Ellis, GeekWire:

According to console sales data fromVGChartz, Nintendo was selling an average of about 29,000 Wii U consoles per week prior to Mario Kart 8′s release. The week Mario Kart 8 hit store shelves, over 130,000 Wii U consoles were sold. Even three weeks after the release, sales were still more than double their pre-Luigi-Death-Stare levels. All-told, Mario Kart 8 has sold an additional 207,000 Wii U consoles in just three weeks.

But it gets even more interesting when you compare the Wii U’s big system-seller with the exclusives that have come out in the first half of 2014 on the other two consoles.

March saw the release of both Titanfall for Xbox One and inFAMOUS: Second Son for Playstation 4. The sales boost from Titanfall only lasted two weeks and moved about 94,000 additional Xbox One consoles. The sales boost from the Seattle-set Second Son lasted three weeks and moved an additional 106,000 PlayStation 4 consoles.

I can’t help myself: Hail Mario.